Models / Cash & ATM Operations

ATM Cash Demand Forecaster

Forecasts cash withdrawals per ATM, 14 days ahead.

InternalAggregated onlyMinimal riskForecasting · 2.1.0 · atm-cash-demand-forecaster
210 19K/30d 74

MAPE (daily, per terminal)

11.8%

WAPE (network)

6.4%

Cash-out days avoided (pilot)

-38%

Idle cash reduction (pilot)

-14%

About this model

Forecasts daily cash withdrawals for every ATM and cash recycler in the network, 14 days ahead, so cash-in-transit orders carry less idle cash and fewer machines run dry. Accounts for payday cycles, public and state holidays, school terms and nearby branch closures.

Intended use

Cash replenishment planning by Group Operations and the cash-in-transit vendor schedule. Aggregated at terminal level; no customer data involved.

Training data lineage

Global LightGBM model trained in Vertex AI Pipelines on three years of terminal-level withdrawal aggregates from casa-transactions, joined to terminal attributes from branch-atm-network in BigQuery. Retrained monthly; each run is logged in Vertex AI Experiments and promoted through the model registry.

Limitations & bias notes

Newly installed terminals rely on similar-site priors for their first eight weeks and run roughly 25% higher error. Unplanned outages and off-site machines in shopping malls during sales events are the largest error sources.

#forecasting#atm#cash-management#branch-network#time-series

Ownership and sensitivity

Owned by

Group OperationsCash & ATM Operations

Accountable owner: Tan Kok Wai

Who approves access

No approval needed. Self-service: subscribe and use, logged for chargeback.

Internal

Open to all staff. Aggregates, policy text, public series and synthetic data.

Self-service: subscribe and use, logged for chargeback.

Aggregated only
No row-level customer data; aggregates with small-cell suppression.

Try it

Live sandbox

terminal=ATM-KL-0214&horizon=12

fixture

Feedback

Details

Updated
2026-07-08
Latest version
2.1.0
Licence
Group Reuse
Access
Open to all BUs
Framework
LightGBM
Language
N/A