SME Cash Flow Forecaster

Forecasts 13-week cash flow for SME accounts and flags shortfalls.

Strictly ConfidentialBanking secrecyCustomer PIIThird-partyLimited riskForecasting · 2.0.1 · sme-cashflow-forecaster

Test in Sandbox

41 15K/30d 33

MAPE (4-week closing balance)

12.4%

MAPE (13-week closing balance)

19.8%

Overdraft-breach recall (8 weeks ahead)

0.71

Coverage of 80% interval

0.78

About this model

Forecasts 13-week inflows, outflows and closing balance for SME current accounts from their own transaction history, and flags customers heading towards an overdraft breach or a trade-line shortfall. Supplied by Kiraan Analytics under licence and deployed inside the Bank's Vertex AI project, so customer data never leaves the Malaysia region.

Intended use

Early-warning input for Business Banking relationship managers and credit monitoring; conversation starter for working-capital products. Not a credit decision; any limit change goes through normal credit approval.

Training data lineage

Kiraan's licensed model architecture, trained by Kiraan engineers inside the Bank's Google Cloud project on sme-portfolio-mart and casa-transactions in BigQuery. No data egress to the vendor; model artefacts are registered in the Bank's Vertex AI model registry. Third-party risk assessment completed under the Bank's outsourcing and third-party risk policy.

Limitations & bias notes

Customers with fewer than 12 months of transaction history get a sector-average forecast. Seasonal businesses tied to festive periods and plantation cycles show wider bands. Receipts through other banks are not visible.

#sme#cash-flow#forecasting#early-warning#vendor#business-banking

Ownership and sensitivity

Owned by

Kiraan Analytics Kiraan Analytics delivery team

Accountable owner: Vendor account manager

Who approves access

Owner, Kiraan Analytics delivery team, Vendor account manager
Data Governance Office, Ahmad Faizal
Operational & Third-party Risk, Aminah Yusof

Built on by Commercial Banking.

Strictly Confidential

Customer-level data under banking secrecy and PDPA, and models that decide on customers.

Named-user entitlement with the data owner's consent and a stated purpose; reviewed on expiry.

Banking secrecy: Customer account information protected under the Financial Services Act 2013.
Customer PII: Contains or processes personal data about customers (PDPA 2010).
Third-party: Supplied by an approved vendor; outsourcing and third-party risk controls apply.

Try it

Live sandbox

customer=B-TKN-2201&msic=46

fixture

Evaluation only: restricted models run against synthetic or masked sample data until your business unit's access request is approved.

Feedback

Details

Updated: 2026-06-18
Latest version: 2.0.1
Licence: Vendor Licensed
Access: Restricted
Framework: LightGBM
Language: N/A

Trained on

sme-portfolio-mart →casa-transactions →